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Brooklyn Nets Projected to Improve on Their 5-6 Record with 38 Wins Next Season… Expect Them to Be in a Dogfight for the Final Playoff Spot

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Nets are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/22 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 39.8% on 11/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 44.1%. Before the start of their 2 game winning streak they were at 27.2%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents’ Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents’ Win Percentage: 50% #8 Toughest

Nets’ Season Forecast Changes

Date Projected Wins Playoff% East Champ NBA Champ
Nov 7 38.4 44.1% 0.4% 0%
Jun 26 27.1 0.4% 0% 0%
Difference +11.3 +43.7% +0.4%

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 33-60 the Nets are behind their money line projected win total of 33.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 21 good wins vs 13 bad losses. They have won 32% of their road games and were expected to win 30%. At home they have a 39% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 43%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 5-6 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 4.3 wins. In simulations, the Nets are a below average team and won 47.9% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#17 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 7/1 they won just 33.8%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #23 winning 38.5%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 61.4% (#2 in League). They average 106.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 106.4. On the road they average 107 (105.8 expected), and at home 106.8 ppg (107.1 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 59.5 true FG% (#27 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 64.2% in their last 7 games. Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (110.1) than expected (110.7). They are allowing 111 (112.2 expected) on the road, and at home 109.3 ppg (109.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.8 per game (#22 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.9 per game (#24 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 1.4.

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 5 more ‘toss up’ games, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 4.3%. At #7 in the conference, they are behind the Hornets by one game. With a +0.31 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Heat in the conference. With a -1 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Nets are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nets are playing 8 games, traveling 12755 miles crossing 11 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

The Brooklyn Nets’ next game is on November 9. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season Leaders FP Per Game Own % and Value
Jarrett Allen 20.5 92% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #21)
D`Angelo Russell 29 99% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #25)
Caris LeVert 25.4 99% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #21)
Spencer Dinwiddie 20.4 79% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #48)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 18.9 77% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #50)
DeMarre Carroll 17.5 26% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #75)

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