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Brooklyn Nets Projected to Improve on Their 8-11 Record with 39 Wins Next Season… Expect Them to Be in a Dogfight for the Final Playoff Spot

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Nets are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/22 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 54.9% on 11/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 56.7%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents’ Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #9 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents’ Win Percentage: 51% #13 Toughest

Nets’ Season Forecast Changes

Date Projected Wins Playoff% East Champ NBA Champ
Nov 23 39 56.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Nov 21 39.4 54.9% 0.3% 0%
Difference -0.4 +1.8% +0.1%

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-11 the Nets are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 7.1 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 6 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have won 42% of their road games and were expected to win 35%. At home they have a 43% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 41%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-6, 50%) is better than their expected 38% win percentage. In simulations where the Nets played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 45.8% of the time (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #28 in the league back on 7/1.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.6% (#19 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (109.8) than expected (108.3). On the road they average 107.2 (107.6 expected), and at home 114.3 ppg (109.5 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.6 true FG% (#14 in League). They allow 110.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 112.2. They are allowing 108 (112.4 expected) on the road, and at home 115.3 ppg (111.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2 per game (#21 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 0.3.

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.1 per game (#16 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Nets next 6 game forecast looks like a mix of ‘clouds and sun’. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 4 more ‘toss up’ games, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (31% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 16.1%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.8%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Magic by 1.5 games. With a +1.63 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Heat by one game. With a +0.77 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Nets are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nets are playing 8 games, traveling 408 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

Sportsline has a free pick on the Brooklyn Nets’ next game. They are +2 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season Leaders FP Per Game Own % and Value
Jarrett Allen 22.8 94% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #19)
D`Angelo Russell 30.9 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #16)
Spencer Dinwiddie 23.9 91% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #41)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 19.8 72% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #47)
DeMarre Carroll 17.5 31% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #75)
Joe Harris 18.3 48% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #64)

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