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NBA Free ATS Picks: Take Brooklyn Nets -2 on Road at Chicago Bulls

Sunday, January 06, 2019

Brooklyn Nets vs Chicago Bulls

The odds favor the Nets, and the sims are solidly on the Nets as well. The projected score is Nets 108 and Bulls 99, and Brooklyn is winning 73% of simulations. The moneyline for the Nets is -125 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Nets are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the Bulls averaged 102 points per game and the Nets 101. The computer would set the spread at BKN -9.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CHI +2. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nets are 15-13-0. As an underdog, the Bulls are 19-19-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Nets have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Bulls. The Bulls were favored by an average of -2 points in these games and they won by an average of 1.6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets 208 105.0 108.5 54% 73% 100.6 (5 Wins)
Chicago Bulls +2.0 103.0 98.9 46% 27% 102.2 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Orlando Magic vs LA Clippers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Clippers to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Clippers 114 and Magic 111, and Los Angeles is winning 58% of the sims. At -286 on the moneyline, the Clippers implied probability to win is 74 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Clippers going 5-0. In these games the Clippers averaged 111 points per game and the Magic 100. The projection based point spread is LAC -3.5. More of the action seems to be on the Clippers with the Vegas line moving from -6.5 to -7. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Clippers are 15-7-0. As an underdog, the Magic are 15-12-0. While they may be 0-5 straight up vs the Clippers, the Magic have been better against the spread. The Magic are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Clippers. The Clippers were favored by an average of -6.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 11.6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Orlando Magic 220 106.5 110.8 29% 42% 99.8 (0 Wins)
LA Clippers -7.0 113.5 114.2 71% 58% 111.4 (5 Wins)

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LA Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Timberwolves. The projected score is Timberwolves 112 and Lakers 110, and Minnesota is winning 52% of the sims. The Timberwolves are -250 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Timberwolves going 5-1. In these games the Timberwolves averaged 117 points per game and the Lakers 107. The computer would set the spread at MIN -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -5.5. The Timberwolves have a record of 11-8-0 as a favorite. The Lakers have a record of 5-6-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Timberwolves are 5-1-0 against the spread vs the Lakers. The Timberwolves were favored by an average of -3.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 10 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
LA Lakers 232 113.2 110.4 31% 48% 106.8 (1 Win)
Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 118.8 111.6 69% 52% 116.8 (5 Wins)

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Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks

The Heat are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Heat 120 and Hawks 112, and Miami is winning 68% of simulations. The moneyline for the Heat is -238 which translates to 70 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 5 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Heat averaged 106 and the Hawks 100 ppg. The projection based point spread is MIA -7.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening ATL +6. The Heat have a record of 8-11-0 as a favorite. The Hawks have a record of 16-20-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Heat are 5-4-1 against the spread vs the Hawks. The average point spread in these games was Heat -2.5 and they won by an average of 6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Miami Heat 221.5 113.8 119.6 69% 68% 106.4 (5 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks +6.0 107.7 111.9 31% 32% 100.4 (5 Wins)

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Washington Wizards vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Thunder 121 and Wizards 106, with Oklahoma City winning 81% of the time. The Thunder are -581 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 85 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 5 matchups the Thunder are 3-2. In these games the Thunder averaged 115 points per game and the Wizards 112. The computer would set the spread at OKC -14.5. With more action on the Wizards, oddsmakers have moved the line from +10.5 to +10. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Thunder are 16-12-1. As an underdog, the Wizards are 6-13-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Thunder are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Wizards. The Thunder were favored by an average of -0.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 3 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Washington Wizards 225.5 107.8 106.4 17% 19% 112.0 (2 Wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder -10.0 117.7 121.0 83% 81% 115.0 (3 Wins)

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Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors

The odds favor the Raptors, and the sims are solidly on the Raptors as well. The projected score is Raptors 110 and Pacers 105, and Toronto is winning 63% of simulations. The Raptors are -182 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Raptors going 6-2. In these games the Raptors averaged 105 points per game and the Pacers 99. The computer would set the spread at TOR -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -4.5. The Raptors have a record of 12-19-1 as a favorite. The Pacers have a record of 8-5-0 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The Raptors were favored by an average of -3.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Indiana Pacers 208.5 102.0 105.1 37% 37% 98.6 (2 Wins)
Toronto Raptors -4.5 106.5 110.5 63% 63% 104.8 (6 Wins)

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Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Hornets. The projected score is Hornets 113 and Suns 112, with Charlotte being given a 53% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Hornets is -130 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Hornets are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Hornets averaged 115 and the Suns 113 ppg. The computer would set the spread at CHA -1. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening PHO +2. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Hornets are 11-13-0. As an underdog, the Suns are 17-22-0. While they may be 1-3 straight up in previous matchups, the Suns have been better against the spread. The Suns have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Hornets. The average point spread in these games was Hornets -9 and they won by an average of 2.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets 224 113.0 112.7 54% 53% 115.0 (3 Wins)
Phoenix Suns +2.0 111.0 111.6 46% 47% 112.8 (1 Win)

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Monday, January 07, 2019

San Antonio Spurs vs Detroit Pistons

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Pistons are winning a slight majority of simulations. The projected score is Pistons 108 and Spurs 107, and Detroit is winning 52% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Spurs are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Spurs averaged 94 and the Pistons 91 ppg. The projection based point spread is DET -1. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pistons have a record of 6-8-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 11-8-0 as an underdog. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -5.6 and they won by an average of 2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs 107.9 48% 93.5 (3 Wins)
Detroit Pistons 108.5 52% 91.0 (1 Win)

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Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Celtics are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Celtics 108 and Nets 103, with Boston winning 64% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Celtics going 8-0. In these games the Celtics averaged 107 points per game and the Nets 100. The computer would set the spread at BOS -5.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Celtics have a record of 18-13-0 as a favorite. The Nets have a record of 15-15-0 as an underdog. While they may be 0-8 straight up vs the Celtics, the Nets have been better against the spread. The Nets are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Celtics. The Celtics were favored by an average of -6.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets 102.8 36% 99.8 (0 Wins)
Boston Celtics 108.5 64% 107.4 (8 Wins)

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Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets

The current simulations favor the Rockets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Rockets 116 and Nuggets 110, with Houston winning 65% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-0 record. In these games the Rockets averaged 119 points per game and the Nuggets 107. The projection based point spread is HOU -7. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 15-15-0. As an underdog, the Nuggets are 20-18-1. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Rockets have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Nuggets. The Rockets were favored by an average of -3.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 12.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Denver Nuggets 109.7 35% 106.9 (0 Wins)
Houston Rockets 116.5 65% 119.4 (8 Wins)

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Utah Jazz vs Milwaukee Bucks

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Bucks are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Bucks 111 and Jazz 107, and Milwaukee is winning 59% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Jazz have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Jazz averaged 108 and the Bucks 102 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIL -4. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bucks have a record of 17-15-1 as a favorite. The Jazz have a record of 6-6-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Jazz are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Bucks. The average point spread in these games was Jazz -2.2 and they won by an average of 6.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Utah Jazz 107.4 41% 108.5 (3 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks 111.4 59% 102.0 (1 Win)

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Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans

The current simulations favor the Pelicans, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Pelicans 111 and Grizzlies 109, with New Orleans winning 56% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 9 matchups the Grizzlies are 5-4. In these games the Pelicans averaged 101 points per game and the Grizzlies 98. The computer would set the spread at NO -2. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pelicans have a record of 9-12-0 as a favorite. The Grizzlies have a record of 8-14-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Grizzlies are 6-3-0 against the spread vs the Pelicans. The Pelicans were favored by an average of -2.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies 109.2 44% 98.4 (5 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans 111.4 56% 101.2 (4 Wins)

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LA Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Lakers are favored. The projected score is Lakers 111 and Mavericks 107, with Los Angeles winning 59% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Lakers going 5-1. In these games, the Lakers averaged 114 and the Mavericks 107 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAL -4. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Mavericks are 8-6-0. As an underdog, the Lakers are 5-6-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Lakers are 4-2-0 against the spread vs the Mavericks. The average point spread in these games was Lakers -2.8 and they won by an average of 7.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
LA Lakers 110.8 59% 114.2 (5 Wins)
Dallas Mavericks 107.0 41% 107.0 (1 Win)

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New York Knicks vs Portland Trail Blazers

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Trail Blazers are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Trail Blazers 119 and Knicks 104, and Portland is winning 82% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Trail Blazers going 4-1. In these games the Trail Blazers averaged 109 points per game and the Knicks 99. The projection based point spread is POR -14.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Trail Blazers have a record of 13-10-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 14-14-2 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Trail Blazers are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Knicks. The Trail Blazers were favored by an average of -6 points in these games and they won by an average of 10.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
New York Knicks 104.5 18% 98.8 (1 Win)
Portland Trail Blazers 119.2 82% 109.0 (4 Wins)

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Orlando Magic vs Sacramento Kings

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Magic are slightly favored. The projected score is Magic 113 and Kings 112, with Orlando being given a 51% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Kings have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Kings averaged 104 points per game and the Magic 101. The projection based point spread is ORL -1. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Kings have a record of 11-7-1 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 15-12-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Kings have the ATS edge head to head going 4-1-0 vs the Magic. The average point spread in these games was Magic -2 but the Kings won by an average of 3.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Orlando Magic 112.6 51% 100.6 (1 Win)
Sacramento Kings 112.3 49% 104.0 (4 Wins)

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