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Brooklyn Nets

NBA Game Forecasts: Brooklyn Nets a Surprise Sim Favorite Over Charlotte

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Friday, December 28, 2018

Brooklyn Nets vs Charlotte Hornets

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Nets as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Nets 111 and Hornets 110, with Brooklyn winning 54% of the latest sims. The Hornets are -200 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 67 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Hornets are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the Hornets averaged 113 points per game and the Nets 111. The projection based point spread is BKN -1.5. More of the action seems to be on the Hornets with the Vegas line moving from -4.5 to -5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Hornets are 9-11-0. As an underdog, the Nets are 14-13-0. While they may be 3-5 straight up vs the Hornets, the Nets have been better against the spread. The Nets have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Hornets. The Hornets were favored by an average of -6.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets 221 108.0 111.4 36% 54% 110.9 (3 Wins)
Charlotte Hornets -5.0 113.0 109.8 64% 46% 113.1 (5 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Detroit Pistons vs Indiana Pacers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Pacers to win the game. The projected score is Pacers 104 and Pistons 99, with Indiana winning 62% of the time. The Pacers are -270 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 73 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Pacers are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the Pacers averaged 104 points per game and the Pistons 102. The projection based point spread is IND -5.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Pistons with the Vegas moving from +7 to +6.5. The Pacers have a record of 11-10-1 as a favorite. The Pistons have a record of 11-7-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Pacers have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Pistons. The average point spread in these games was Pistons -0.6 but the Pacers won by an average of 2.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons 206 99.8 98.6 30% 38% 101.6 (3 Wins)
Indiana Pacers -6.5 106.2 103.9 70% 62% 103.9 (5 Wins)

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Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Raptors to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Raptors 108 and Magic 100, with Toronto being given a 70% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Raptors is -323 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-2 record. In these games, the Raptors averaged 108 and the Magic 99 ppg. The computer would set the spread at TOR -8. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening ORL +7. The Raptors have a record of 11-17-1 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 14-10-0 as an underdog. While they may be 2-6 straight up in previous matchups, the Magic have been better against the spread. The Magic have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-1 vs the Raptors. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -8.1 and they won by an average of 9.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors 209.5 108.2 108.5 73% 70% 107.8 (6 Wins)
Orlando Magic +7.0 101.3 100.4 27% 30% 98.6 (2 Wins)

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Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Wizards to win the game. The projected score is Wizards 113 and Bulls 102, and Washington is winning 79% of simulations. At -250 on the moneyline, the Wizards implied probability to win is 71 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Wizards since the moneyline is moving that way. The Wizards have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. Both teams have averaged 103 points in these games. The computer would set the spread at WAS -11.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Wizards as the Vegas line has moved from -4.5 to -5.5. The Wizards have a record of 8-10-0 as a favorite. The Bulls have a record of 16-18-0 as an underdog. While they may be 2-5 straight up vs the Wizards, the Bulls have been better against the spread. The Bulls have the ATS edge head to head going 5-2-0 vs the Wizards. The Wizards were favored by an average of -3.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 0.3 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls 216.5 105.5 101.7 32% 21% 103.1 (2 Wins)
Washington Wizards -5.5 111.0 113.2 68% 79% 103.4 (5 Wins)

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Heat to win the game. The projected score is Heat 107 and Cavaliers 95, and Miami is winning 77% of simulations. At -500 on the moneyline, the Heat implied probability to win is 83 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Heat are 4-3. In these games the Heat averaged 103 points per game and the Cavaliers 100. The projection based point spread is MIA -12. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -8.5. The Heat have a record of 6-9-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 16-15-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Heat have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Cavaliers -1.6 but the Heat won by an average of 2.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers 202.5 97.0 95.4 20% 23% 100.4 (3 Wins)
Miami Heat -8.5 105.5 107.2 80% 77% 102.6 (4 Wins)

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Atlanta Hawks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Timberwolves over the Hawks. The projected score is Timberwolves 117 and Hawks 103, with Minnesota winning 80% of the time. The moneyline for the Timberwolves is -455 which translates to 82 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Timberwolves have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Timberwolves averaged 106 points per game and the Hawks 98. The computer would set the spread at MIN -13.5. With more action on the Hawks, oddsmakers have moved the line from +10 to +9. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Timberwolves are 10-7-0. As an underdog, the Hawks are 14-18-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Timberwolves are 2-1-1 against the spread vs the Hawks. The Timberwolves were favored by an average of -3.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Atlanta Hawks 229.5 110.2 102.9 21% 20% 98.2 (1 Win)
Minnesota Timberwolves -9.0 119.3 116.6 79% 80% 105.5 (3 Wins)

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Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans

The odds favor the Pelicans, and the sims are solidly on the Pelicans as well. The projected score is Pelicans 118 and Mavericks 115, and New Orleans is winning 57% of simulations. At -200 on the moneyline, the Pelicans implied probability to win is 67 percent. The Pelicans are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games the Pelicans averaged 118 points per game and the Mavericks 111. The projection based point spread is NO -2.5. More of the action seems to be on the Pelicans with the Vegas line moving from -4 to -5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pelicans are 7-11-0. As an underdog, the Mavericks are 12-7-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Pelicans have the ATS edge head to head going 4-2-0 vs the Mavericks. The Pelicans were favored by an average of -4.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks 230.5 112.8 115.3 36% 43% 110.7 (2 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans -5.0 117.7 117.9 64% 57% 118.5 (4 Wins)

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San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets

The odds favor the Nuggets, and the sims are solidly on the Nuggets as well. The projected score is Nuggets 117 and Spurs 107, with Denver winning 75% of the time. The Nuggets are -175 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 64 percent. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Spurs going 6-2. In these games, the Spurs averaged 115 and the Nuggets 103 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DEN -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Nuggets as the Vegas line has moved from -3.5 to -4. The Nuggets have a record of 13-8-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 8-8-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Spurs are 6-2-0 against the spread vs the Nuggets. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -5 and they won by an average of 12.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs 214 105.0 107.0 38% 25% 115.4 (6 Wins)
Denver Nuggets -4.0 109.0 117.0 62% 75% 103.2 (2 Wins)

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Thunder to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Thunder 113 and Suns 101, and Oklahoma City is winning 77% of simulations. The moneyline for the Thunder is -237 which translates to 70 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Suns since the moneyline is moving that way. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Thunder going 5-1. In these games, the Thunder averaged 114 and the Suns 105 ppg. The projection based point spread is OKC -12.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Suns with the Vegas moving from +7 to +6.5. The Thunder have a record of 13-11-1 as a favorite. The Suns have a record of 16-18-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Thunder are 4-2-0 against the spread vs the Suns. The average point spread in these games was Thunder -8.9 and they won by an average of 9.3 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Oklahoma City Thunder 223.5 115.0 112.9 69% 77% 114.0 (5 Wins)
Phoenix Suns +6.5 108.5 100.6 31% 23% 104.7 (1 Win)

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LA Clippers vs LA Lakers

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Lakers are winning a slight majority of simulations. The projected score is Lakers 110 and Clippers 109, with the Lakers winning 54% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Clippers going 6-2. In these games, the Clippers averaged 114 and the Lakers 106 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAL -1.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lakers are 11-14-0. As an underdog, the Clippers are 6-8-1. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Clippers are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Lakers. The average point spread in these games was Clippers -6.9 and they won by an average of 7.9 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
LA Clippers 108.7 46% 114.0 (6 Wins)
LA Lakers 110.2 54% 106.1 (2 Wins)

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Saturday, December 29, 2018

Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks

The current simulations favor the Bucks, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Bucks 112 and Nets 109, and Milwaukee is winning 56% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Bucks have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-1 record. In these games the Bucks averaged 114 points per game and the Nets 105. The projection based point spread is MIL -2.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bucks have a record of 14-14-1 as a favorite. The Nets have a record of 14-13-0 as an underdog. While they may be 1-6 straight up vs the Bucks, the Nets have been better against the spread. The Nets have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Bucks. The Bucks were favored by an average of -6.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 9.3 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets 109.4 44% 104.7 (1 Win)
Milwaukee Bucks 111.7 56% 114.0 (6 Wins)

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Houston Rockets vs New Orleans Pelicans

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Rockets are winning a slight majority of simulations. The projected score is Rockets 116 and Pelicans 115, and Houston is winning 53% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rockets going 6-3. In these games, the Rockets averaged 117 and the Pelicans 111 ppg. The computer would set the spread at HOU -1. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pelicans are 7-11-0. As an underdog, the Rockets are 8-11-0. While they may be 3-6 straight up in previous matchups, the Pelicans have been better against the spread. The Pelicans are 5-4-0 against the spread vs the Rockets. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -8.2 and they won by an average of 6.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Houston Rockets 115.8 53% 117.3 (6 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans 114.8 47% 110.6 (3 Wins)

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Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards

The current simulations favor the Wizards, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Wizards 118 and Hornets 110, and Washington is winning 71% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Hornets averaged 111 and the Wizards 109 ppg. The projection based point spread is WAS -8.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Wizards are 8-10-0. As an underdog, the Hornets are 8-5-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered 4 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Hornets -0.5 and they won by an average of 2.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets 109.8 29% 111.4 (4 Wins)
Washington Wizards 118.5 71% 109.2 (4 Wins)

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Hawks are favored. The projected score is Hawks 119 and Cavaliers 113, and Atlanta is winning 64% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Cavaliers have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games, the Cavaliers averaged 122 and the Hawks 116 ppg. The projection based point spread is ATL -6. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Hawks have a record of 6-7-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 16-15-0 as an underdog. The Hawks have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Hawks are 4-2-0 against the spread vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Cavaliers -7.5 and they won by an average of 5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers 113.0 36% 121.5 (4 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks 119.0 64% 116.5 (2 Wins)

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Boston Celtics vs Memphis Grizzlies

The current simulations favor the Celtics, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Celtics 102 and Grizzlies 96, with Boston being given a 65% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Celtics going 4-0. In these games, the Celtics averaged 109 and the Grizzlies 101 ppg. The projection based point spread is BOS -6. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Grizzlies are 9-6-0. As an underdog, the Celtics are 26-16-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Celtics are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Grizzlies. The average point spread in these games was Celtics -6.8 and they won by an average of 8.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Boston Celtics 101.5 65% 109.0 (4 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies 95.7 35% 100.8 (0 Wins)

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New York Knicks vs Utah Jazz

The current simulations favor the Jazz, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Jazz 119 and Knicks 97, and Utah is winning 91% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Jazz averaged 110 points per game and the Knicks 108. The computer would set the spread at UTA -21.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Jazz have a record of 11-14-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 12-13-2 as an underdog. The Knicks have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Jazz. The Jazz were favored by an average of -4 points in these games and they won by an average of 1.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
New York Knicks 97.2 9% 108.2 (2 Wins)
Utah Jazz 118.6 91% 109.5 (2 Wins)

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Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Nuggets are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Nuggets 112 and Suns 99, and Denver is winning 80% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Nuggets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-1 record. In these games, the Nuggets averaged 121 and the Suns 109 ppg. The projection based point spread is DEN -13. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Suns have a record of 6-13-1 as a favorite. The Nuggets have a record of 20-18-1 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Nuggets have the ATS edge head to head going 7-1-0 vs the Suns. The average point spread in these games was Nuggets -5.4 and they won by an average of 11.6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Denver Nuggets 112.4 80% 120.8 (7 Wins)
Phoenix Suns 99.4 20% 109.1 (1 Win)

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Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Warriors are favored. The projected score is Warriors 115 and Trail Blazers 108, with Golden State being given a 68% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 5 matchups the Trail Blazers are 3-2. In these games, the Warriors averaged 114 and the Trail Blazers 112 ppg. The projection based point spread is GS -7.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Trail Blazers are 11-9-0. As an underdog, the Warriors are 4-9-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Trail Blazers are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Warriors. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -4.6 and they won by an average of 2.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors 115.1 68% 114.0 (2 Wins)
Portland Trail Blazers 107.7 32% 111.8 (3 Wins)

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San Antonio Spurs vs LA Clippers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Clippers are favored. The projected score is Clippers 115 and Spurs 112, with Los Angeles winning 58% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 5 matchups the Spurs are 3-2. In these games, the Spurs averaged 115 and the Clippers 103 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAC -3.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Clippers have a record of 13-6-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 8-8-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Spurs are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Clippers. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -2.9 and they won by an average of 12.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs 112.0 42% 115.0 (3 Wins)
LA Clippers 115.3 58% 102.8 (2 Wins)

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