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NBA Money Line Parlay: Brooklyn Nets -106 and Orlando Magic +100

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Dallas Mavericks vs Charlotte Hornets

The odds favor the Hornets, and the sims are solidly on the Hornets as well. The projected score is Hornets 114 and Mavericks 108, and Charlotte is winning 65% of the sims. The moneyline for the Hornets is -133 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Hornets are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games the Hornets averaged 105 points per game and the Mavericks 100. The projection based point spread is CHA -6. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Hornets are 11-12-0. As an underdog, the Mavericks are 14-8-0. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Hornets were favored by an average of -6.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks 222 109.8 107.8 45% 35% 100.2 (1 Win)
Charlotte Hornets -2.5 112.2 114.0 55% 65% 104.8 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The Heat are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Heat 109 and Cavaliers 95, with Miami being given a 80% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Heat is -250 which translates to 71 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Heat have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games, the Heat averaged 104 and the Cavaliers 100 ppg. The projection based point spread is MIA -14. Bettors seem to be favoring the Cavaliers with the Vegas moving from +6.5 to +6. The Heat have a record of 7-10-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 17-16-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Heat are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers were favored by an average of -0.1 points in these games but the Heat won by an average of 4.9 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Miami Heat 206 106.0 109.1 69% 80% 104.5 (5 Wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers +6.0 100.0 95.3 31% 20% 99.6 (3 Wins)

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Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards

The odds favor the Wizards, and the sims are solidly on the Wizards as well. The projected score is Wizards 116 and Hawks 114, and Washington is winning 56% of the sims. At -220 on the moneyline, the Wizards implied probability to win is 69 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Wizards since the moneyline is moving that way. They both have 3 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Wizards averaged 113 points per game and the Hawks 108. The computer would set the spread at WAS -2.5. More of the action seems to be on the Wizards with the Vegas line moving from -4.5 to -5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Wizards are 8-11-0. As an underdog, the Hawks are 16-18-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered 3 times head-to-head. The Wizards were favored by an average of -6 points in these games and they won by an average of 5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Atlanta Hawks 230 112.5 114.0 34% 44% 108.2 (3 Wins)
Washington Wizards -5.0 117.5 116.3 66% 56% 113.2 (3 Wins)

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New Orleans Pelicans vs Brooklyn Nets

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Nets as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Nets 117 and Pelicans 112, with Brooklyn winning 63% of the time. The moneylines for the game are Nets -106 and Pelicans -104. These lines, if you adjust for the juice, translates to 50% to 50%. These lines, if you adjust for the juice, translates to 50% to 50%. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Pelicans going 4-1. In these games, the Pelicans averaged 120 and the Nets 119 ppg. The projection based point spread is BKN -5.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening BKN +1. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pelicans are 8-12-0. As an underdog, the Nets are 14-15-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Pelicans are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Nets. The average point spread in these games was Pelicans -5.5 and they won by an average of 1.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans 230.5 115.8 111.6 50% 37% 120.2 (4 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets +1.0 114.7 117.1 50% 63% 118.8 (1 Win)

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Boston Celtics

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Celtics over the Timberwolves. The projected score is Celtics 113 and Timberwolves 106, with Boston winning 68% of the time. The Celtics are -250 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Celtics have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record. In these games the Celtics averaged 108 points per game and the Timberwolves 100. The computer would set the spread at BOS -7.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Celtics are 16-13-0. As an underdog, the Timberwolves are 9-9-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Celtics have the ATS edge head to head going 5-0-0 vs the Timberwolves. The Celtics were favored by an average of -2.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 8.6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Minnesota Timberwolves 218.5 106.2 105.7 31% 32% 99.8 (0 Wins)
Boston Celtics -6.0 112.3 113.3 69% 68% 108.4 (5 Wins)

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Orlando Magic vs Chicago Bulls

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Magic as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Magic 103 and Bulls 98, and Orlando is winning 60% of simulations. The Bulls are -120 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 55 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Bulls going 5-1. In these games the Bulls averaged 99 points per game and the Magic 90. The computer would set the spread at ORL -4.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1.5. The Bulls have a record of 6-4-0 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 15-11-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Bulls are 4-2-0 against the spread vs the Magic. The average point spread in these games was Magic -2.1 but the Bulls won by an average of 9.3 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Orlando Magic 201.5 100.0 102.9 48% 60% 89.5 (1 Win)
Chicago Bulls -1.5 101.5 98.4 52% 40% 98.8 (5 Wins)

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Detroit Pistons vs Memphis Grizzlies

The odds favor the Grizzlies, and the sims are solidly on the Grizzlies as well. The projected score is Grizzlies 99 and Pistons 97, and Memphis is winning 55% of simulations. The moneyline for the Grizzlies is -230 which translates to 70 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Grizzlies averaged 105 points per game and the Pistons 102. The projection based point spread is MEM -2. Bettors seem to be favoring the Grizzlies as the Vegas line has moved from -5.5 to -6. The Grizzlies have a record of 9-6-0 as a favorite. The Pistons have a record of 11-9-1 as an underdog. The Grizzlies are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Pistons. The average point spread in these games was Pistons -3.8 but the Grizzlies won by an average of 2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons 199 96.5 97.0 33% 45% 102.5 (2 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies -6.0 102.5 98.9 67% 55% 105.0 (2 Wins)

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Philadelphia 76ers vs Phoenix Suns

The odds favor the 76ers, and the sims are solidly on the 76ers as well. The projected score is 76ers 113 and Suns 107, with Philadelphia being given a 65% chance of winning. At -222 on the moneyline, the 76ers implied probability to win is 69 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 5 matchups the 76ers are 3-2. In these games, the 76ers averaged 116 and the Suns 113 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PHI -6.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening PHO +5. The 76ers have a record of 13-12-0 as a favorite. The Suns have a record of 17-20-0 as an underdog. The Suns have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Suns are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the 76ers. The average point spread in these games was 76ers -3.3 and they won by an average of 2.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Philadelphia 76ers 228.5 116.8 113.2 66% 65% 115.8 (3 Wins)
Phoenix Suns +5.0 111.7 106.8 34% 35% 113.4 (2 Wins)

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs LA Lakers

The odds favor the Thunder, and the sims are solidly on the Thunder as well. The projected score is Thunder 111 and Lakers 109, and Oklahoma City is winning 54% of simulations. At -199 on the moneyline, the Thunder implied probability to win is 67 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Thunder are 4-3. In these games, the Thunder averaged 109 and the Lakers 100 ppg. The projection based point spread is OKC -1.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening LAL +5.5. The Thunder have a record of 15-12-1 as a favorite. The Lakers have a record of 5-5-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Thunder have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Lakers. The average point spread in these games was Thunder -6.4 and they won by an average of 9.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Oklahoma City Thunder 230 117.8 110.8 65% 54% 109.1 (4 Wins)
LA Lakers +5.5 112.2 109.2 35% 46% 100.0 (3 Wins)

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Thursday, January 03, 2019

Toronto Raptors vs San Antonio Spurs

The current simulations favor the Spurs, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Spurs 112 and Raptors 106, and San Antonio is winning 65% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Spurs are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games the Spurs averaged 100 points per game and the Raptors 93. The computer would set the spread at SA -6. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Spurs are 10-8-0. As an underdog, the Raptors are 14-11-0. The average spread in these 4 games was a pick ’em (zero points) and the Spurs won by an average of 7.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors 106.2 35% 92.8 (1 Win)
San Antonio Spurs 112.4 65% 100.5 (3 Wins)

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Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Nuggets are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Nuggets 119 and Kings 112, and Denver is winning 67% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Nuggets going 6-3. In these games, the Nuggets averaged 110 and the Kings 103 ppg. The projection based point spread is DEN -7. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Kings have a record of 11-7-1 as a favorite. The Nuggets have a record of 20-18-1 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Nuggets are 6-3-0 against the spread vs the Kings. The average point spread in these games was Nuggets -8.3 and they won by an average of 7.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Denver Nuggets 118.7 67% 110.0 (6 Wins)
Sacramento Kings 111.8 33% 102.6 (3 Wins)

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Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors

The current simulations favor the Warriors, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Warriors 118 and Rockets 107, with Golden State winning 75% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 15 matchups the Warriors are 8-7. In these games the Warriors averaged 111 points per game and the Rockets 106. The computer would set the spread at GS -11. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Warriors are 14-19-0. As an underdog, the Rockets are 8-11-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. They both covered the spread 7 times in their last few matchups with one push. The Warriors were favored by an average of -4.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.7 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Houston Rockets 107.4 25% 106.1 (7 Wins)
Golden State Warriors 118.4 75% 110.9 (8 Wins)

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